Daily Outlook: We are coming off another strong week last week as our S/R lines and candlesticks held true for most pairs, and we are again watching the same falling trend resistance line that we were watching at the end of last week that connects the highs of July 13th, 14th and 15th (yellow and black resistance line on chart below):
The short-term consolidation below this falling trend resistance is bearish but the overall pattern itself is quasi-bullish when you look at it on the 4h charts as it appears to be the flag-pattern attached to a bullish flag pole, meaning a break above the falling resistance would be a very bullish move. To take advantage of the bearish short-term technicals under falling resistance (currently around 4150) we are tracking a minor rising support at 4060 that we will look to get short on a sustained break below (last yellow support on chart above).
Markets are of course watching the US debt ceiling situation closely for clues about the long-term viability of various global economies, but honestly the implications of a default or non-default or the various shades of a “near default” are so nuanced that we prefer to focus on the charts/techs as always. We could throw out various theories about risk aversion, reserve currency status, fiat currency credibility, etc etc – but they would be just that: theories. The most objective thing we can look at is what the chart is telling us about the future market direction 
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.Trading Idea: Primary trade is a long on a sustained break above falling trend resistance (currently around 4150) with targets at 4175, 4200, 4230 and 4260 for 110 pips. We would also leave a lot open to run as 4300 and 4500 would not be too far behind.
We are also currently looking for an aggressive short on a sustained break below 4060 with targets at 4040 (tight t1), 4015, 3990 and 3960 for 100 pips potential.
