Sunday, September 11, 2011

EUR/USD Signal 12-07-2011





Daily Outlook: Markets are tanking as they re-re-re-digest (haven’t we already talked about this week after week) the possibility of a Greek default anew as the new IMF chief says that “nothing should be taken for granted”. Well the markets at large have been taking for granted for months that a Greek bailout was a sure thing and now we are seeing the effects a little true doubt can have: a 240 pip drop from high to low yesterday. We were looking for bearish entries (thank you candlesticks :) the whole way and today we are once again faced with a consolidation wedge that looks bearish:
Our preference is still down but we will take a trade in either direction here – long in a sustained break above 1.4000 falling trend resistance or short on a sustained break below 1.3930. We will also look for an opportunity to get short under 1.4000 on a good candlestick bounce off of the falling trend resistance.
Trading Idea: Primary trade is a short on a sustained break of 1.3930 with targets at 1.3910, 3880, 3850 and 3820 for 110 pips potential. We will also look for a short under 1.40 with good candlestick confirmation and targets down to 1.3970, 3940, 3910 and 3880.
Finally there is room for a long on a sustained break above 1.40, with targets at 1.4025, 4050, 4075 and 4100 for 100 pips.